By Sarah Ferris, CNN
(CNN) — GOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters.
Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to “corrupt politicians” and “billionaires” — a response that surprised some longtime strategists who’ve never seen government corruption emerge as a top issue for so many Republican voters in congressional races, according to a person involved in the discussions.
Those observations in the reliably red farm belt are just one instance of a glaring pattern for Republicans, as their House battlefield expands into places like Kentucky, Wisconsin and Arkansas. Even some GOP lawmakers acknowledge their party needs to do a better job of making sure they’re responding to voters’ anger at what they see as a broken system of government — or risk losing them altogether.
“These are really tough times … Between their mortgage and their electric bill and the cost of everything else, they’re having a hard time making it. That’s real. That’s a lot more important than the other insider crap we deal with,” said GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, who’s built a brand in Congress as a Trump-loving populist who’s willing to point out his own party’s failures on issues like rising healthcare costs.
And while many voters blame politicians on both sides of the aisle, some Republicans fear they could soon take out those frustrations on the ones in charge.
Republicans involved in House races from Texas to New York to Florida have privately acknowledged to CNN they’re troubled by flashes of anger particularly from working-class voters with kids, whose gas and grocery prices are skyrocketing. One GOP consultant working on congressional races described the theme of corruption as an “underappreciated fact” of this midterm, calling it a “two or three issue” in polling even in reliably red seats this cycle.
There are fears that Republicans could see a washout in parts of the country that are suffering the most from high fuel and grocery prices — where they worry many blue-collar workers are feeling ignored by the president who once pledged to drain the swamp and, instead, has made plans to build a ballroom in it with a price tag in the millions.
Republicans are mostly downbeat about holding onto the House, though they believe the Senate is still in reach, given that Democrats would likely need to win red states like Iowa, Alaska or Ohio.
Even so, inside the GOP, multiple House Republican operatives say they are seeing some slight glimmers of optimism as internal polling in some races has improved from what many saw as a doomsday scenario a few weeks ago. Several believe they’re seeing evidence that some voters are coming “home,” especially in races with strong candidates, and that the hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into those contests may be starting to help.
“In some places the polls are moving in our direction,” one GOP operative involved in House races told CNN, declining to offer specifics because of the competitive nature of the campaigns.
But the House map is still not a rosy picture for the party, whose president is underwater in states he won by double digits two years ago. Top GOP super PACs have cut off funding for two incumbents so far, which CNN first reported was under consideration, as well as several seats they were attempting to flip.
Top Democrats, for their part, remain confident they will win the majority – and not by a small margin. They feel particularly good about defeating incumbent GOP Reps. Monica De La Cruz of Texas, Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, Gabe Evans in Colorado plus Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania. That’s on top of the two incumbents already abandoned by GOP groups, according to multiple people familiar with internal polling. They’re also confident they’ll win in the open seat in North Carolina’s 11th , where GOP leaders pressured Rep. Chuck Edwards not to seek reelection, and Nebraska’s 2nd, where Republicans also pulled resources.
Republicans are still spending in most of these races and say their own internal polling shows a path to victory, particularly for Ciscomani and Evans and possibly De La Cruz. There’s also hope of last-minute enthusiasm boost in seats like North Carolina’s 11th, where Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit early this week.
One GOP operative involved in House races described each of those Democratic targets as “pure tossups.”
There is some nervousness within the GOP conference about incumbents like Rep. French Hill in Arkansas and Brad Finstad in Minnesota who are in deep red seats, though few actually believe they will flip. They anticipate seats like those will be closer, and more expensive, than people in the party want — but most do not expect the worst.
One Republican operative, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, stressed that he does not believe an incumbent like Hill is at risk of losing: “If French Hill’s losing, it’s a f**king bloodbath. I don’t see it.”
While Republicans have rolled their eyes at some of Democrats’ most ambitious targets, the party has increasingly put real money behind expanding the map. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is leading a $20 million effort to push into red territory, including by trying to flip French’s seat. In an interview, Pritzker said he was trying to divert GOP money from more traditional battleground races and “support candidates where it might be a Trump +10 (district), but honestly, our candidate is running even or even ahead.”
Trump hasn’t ruled out keeping the House, telling Van Drew in a phone call last week: “We still have a shot,” the lawmaker recalled. And Speaker Mike Johnson has said that the environment “feels like 2024” – when Trump won and Republicans kept the House and flipped the Senate.
Johnson also said he believed polling may be underestimating GOP voter enthusiasm.
“I am there on the ground in the swing districts that are going to decide the majority, and I am telling you something is happening right now,” Johnson said as part of a frenzied multi-state swing from Maine to Texas. “I’m telling you, the polling is not reflecting this.”
Not every Republican shares that level of optimism.
“This is a really bad time right now … Just how bad, we don’t know yet,” Van Drew added, though he predicted that Republicans could still avoid a blue wave.
GOP operatives add that the Democratic Party’s brand, too, remains unpopular with voters and several of their incumbents have been swamped by corruption attack ads on TV. (Republicans have gone after Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Adam Gray of California in particular.)
Scores of Democratic candidates across the country have also found the issue effective against Republicans.
Sam Forstag, a first-time candidate and labor leader, has run an insurgent populist campaign in Montana’s 1st district that’s forced Republicans to spend time and money defending the open seat.
“Corruption, like a lot of other things in last couple years, is something that used to be spoken about in polite terms and hushed terms and now it’s all out in the open,” Forstag told CNN. He argued that Trump won the presidency twice by talking about this same issue – but then failed to deliver.
“Trump told everybody one singular truth. He said the system is broken … While he was saying that, well, we had a Democrat in the White House telling us the economy is better than we think it is,” Forstag said, referring to then-President Joe Biden. “One of those two messages was a lot, had a lot more veracity to it than the other, and unfortunately, it turned out that [Trump] was lying about all the ways they were going to fix these things.”
The-CNN-Wire
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CNN’s Patrick Svitek, David Wright and Arlette Saenz contributed to this report
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